Bubble

Fed reserve does not believe there is a bubble in U.S. So it gives a green light to commodity and stock market. Given that Fed partly responsible for creating two previous bubbles by keep rates too low for too long, it is right to question its conclusions. though there may not be an obvious overall bubble yet in U.S., it is a question that localized bubbles are forming. Some observations
1. real estate market in China. In Beijing and Shanghai, an average 1200 sf condo (apartment) sale for 2.5 million yuan and average family income is 100,000 yuan. The ratio is 25:1 and the normal should be around 5:1. There is definitely carry trade going on. It is reported that banks in China have shortage in U$ because people borrow U$ and convert to Yuan to buy assets. The bubble may last until interest rate goes up or the expectation of appreciation of yuan being realized.
2 E-commerce companies in U.S. I do not know anything Amarzon can do but Walmart cannot. so while Amazon trade 4 times more expensive than Walmart.
3. Treasury Bill and JGB. Both U.S. and Japan are issuing enormous government bonds but the yields are very low. The bubble may burst when central banks stop QE. On the other hand, if QE continues, then commodities will go to the roof.

Today's trade
If the market go up another 1%, I will buy 100 SH (short s&p 500) @52.5.