summary Jan. 6, 2010

The market is losing momentum and I expect it to go lower for the next few days.

Closing value
Portfolio 1 (U$): 111307
Portfolio 2 (C$): 80920

why keep interest low over long term is bad policy

Fed is trying to keep interest rate at zero for long term. The question is not how low the rate, it is the duration. If interest rate is kept low for extended time, people's behaviour change. The long term consequences are
1. encouraging consumption and discouraging saving.
2. encouraging borrowing, especially government borrowing which will be addictive
3. encouraging riskier investment which will producing bubble after bubble.

All these will make people feel good in short term but damaging in long term.

Bickering in Europe

There are news coming out from Europe which are not helpful. EU officials insist that they will not bail out Greece. Iceland's president veto the bill to repay UK and Dutch's guarantee for Iceland's bank deposits. It angers U.K. I can see all these tensions building up. It may help U.S dollar a bit in short turn.

summary Jan. 5, 2010

The financial showed some strength. Banks of America is up 3%. Since I bought it last week, it already went up 7%. My target for Bank of America is $18.

HSE did not reach 31.

Closing Value
Portfolio 1 (U$): 111190
Portfolio 2 (C$): 80860

weather related

The weather is colder than normal and there are lots of snow storms in Asia, Europe and North America. The weather will increase food prices which will put pressure on inflation, especially in India and China.

There are some inflow of money from retail investors into equity funds. It always happens in new year. I will take some profit. I will sell HSE at 31 for a total 12% return in 2 months

summary Jan. 4, 2010

The market was up today. If we can ignore the macro picture, the valuation is fair. However, considering higher oil price, higher bond yield and higher deficit (higher taxes in 2011), the market is in stretch. There will be opportunities here and there but you have to be nimble.

Closing value
Portfolio 1 (U$): 110972
Portfolio 2 (C$): 80980

first trading day in 2010

The market usually goes up on the first day. People want to be optimistic about new year. Oil is up, gold is up and bond yield is up as well. All these will keep the stock market in check.

My current portfolio
Portfolio 1 (U$): cash, 400 INTC, 200 CYB, 1000 C, 200 BAC, 100 CHL and 200 BRCD
Portfolio 2 (C$): Cash, 200 HSE and 200 IMG