I have been arguing bear case for some time. Today I want to point some bull arguments, though I still think the market is overvalued right now.
1. Do not fight the FED. Federal reserve is flooding the market with money which is a very strong force to push assets price up in short term
2. Productivity growth. Companies are becoming very lean during the recession. The persistent high unemployment rate means corporations are determined to keep the productivity high. It all translates to high profit margin.
3. The lack of credits is favouring existing corporations. New companies and technology are slow to get out of the ground. On the other hand, for mature and profitable companies, such as Walmart and IBM, the financing costs are very low right now. It created a high barrier for new competitions
4. The depreciate dollar will make global companies more profitable in dollar term, though it will decrease the living standard for Americans.
These are all short term bull arguments.
Today's trade
The market will go lower today. Bank of America downgrade INTEL. I will buy another 200 shares if it goes below 19. I think there is a pent up demand in enterprises to upgrade their computers due to Window 7
Thursday, November 19, 2009
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