Electric car

This is the third time I wrote about Electric Car (EV). EV is probably the most important product over next 20 years. If it is successful, both the shortage of crude oil and the CO2 issue will disappear. However, there are many challenges in EV
1. The cost. The cost of the battary will be 15k to 20k higher than the gasilin tank. It will need subsidies from government. Given the deficit situation around world, how long the subsidies can go is a question mark.
2. The range. The most advanced EV has a range of 100 mile without recharge, which is good for daily commute but not for vacation or long distance travel. It will limit its market share to 20% at most. Of cause, technology can improve.
3. Crude oil price. The irony is if EV is successful, then, crude oil will go down. But you really need high gasoline price to motivate people to buy EV. The solution is to apply some taxes on gasoline to keep the price high regardless of the crude price. It certainly is not a winning political argument.
4. Weather challenge. Cold weather is always a problem for battery. It may not be feasible for EV to operate in cold area, like Canada, Russia and north east U.S.
Who are the players:
1. Nissan. Nissan has invested most the money and has the product (Leaf) ready in the fall of 2010.
2. GM. GM's Volt will be ready next year. But its range is much smaller than Nissan.
3. BYD, a Chines company Warren Buffet invested in. The battery is advanced but the car quality need improvement. By the way, BYD is working on how to store solar power which is big. currently, solar power is not reliable because no way you can store the power to use it when there is no sunshine.