not convinced

I am not convinced
1. there will be no inflation in U.S for next 2-5 years. CPI and Import prices all point to higher inflation. Unless FED to withdraw liquidity quickly, inflation will come sooner rather than later. There is a official report out of China today which estimates that China right now has a labour shortage about 2-5 million. It is going to push up labour cost at least 10%.
2. there will be smooth sailing for all the government borrowing. I can see some difficulties in U.S, U.K and Japan government bonds sales. Investor will demand a higher risk premium to compensate out of control deficit. At the end of day, the only way to repay all the debt is for central banks to print money to monetize the debt. There is no political will for government to either raise tax or cut spending.
3. there is a super bull market for commodity because all the BRIC growth and population growth. In my view, high price will push down demand and increase supply. The cyclical nature of the commodities is still there, albeit the price curve shift a bit upward.