There are many experts are telling you either the market is going up another 10% or we are heading back to a bear market. I would like to list both the positives and negatives and you can judge which direction market will go
Posiitives
1. Economy is in recovery and the risk of second dip is very low. Therefore, for most companies, revenue is going to grow and will be better than expected.
2. The cost cutting so far has improved margin which in return makes the earning better than expected.
3. Bad loans on banks' book have improved.
Negatives:
1. Interest rate is moving higher. The argument that a bear bond market is good for stock market does not hold water this time because the huge bond sales by governments around world. Money has to to government to support all the deficits.
2. Inflation pressure is building because of the higher commodity costs, in additioon, emerging market is going to export inflation. Companies will experience margin pressure if they can not increase their prices. e.g. Iron ore price increased 100% and steel companies has to increase their prices or their profits will disappear.
3. Trade wars happened more often and it is getting worse.
4. Market valuation is high. S&P forward P/E is around 15. Given 30 year bond is close to 5% (translate to equivalent P/E about 14). Why don't you buy a risk free asset
My view is overall market is not cheap and probably is over-valued but there are some companies or sectors maybe undervalued.
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