In the beginning of this year, my prediction for crude oil is between 60-85. I have not changed my position yet. The reason is simple, the economy for offshore oil and oil sand will disappear when oil is below 60. So you will not have long period time for oil trade below 60. The fundamental change may happen when electric cars become viable.
The market is in panic and will last for a while. There are facts and noises in the market. Facts: Global economy will be slower than expected because of European situation; China property is cooling down which means the base metal prices is levelling off; U.S real estate market has stabilized and will improve because of the low price and low martgage rates; Low oil price will benefit consumers; Federal reserve is very dovish; High U.S exchange rate will decrease corporate earning for global companies. Noises: potential breakup of Euro (it is not going to happen any time soon); Big U.S. banks have lots of stress due to European debt (most big Bank's balance sheet are much stronger than a year ago and will make lots of money because of the yield curve).
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment