Today BP is going to try cap the leak. If successful, BP probably will survive and the market will have a relief rally. (There will still be problem if the hurricane season is active. Oil can not be collected if a hurricane forces out collecting ship).
If the cap fails. I doubt BP can survive. BP is spending 30 million dollars a day right now. It will be 3 billion dollars for 100 days. The additional cleaning cost will be at least 10 billion dollars. The legal and economic compensation costs will not be cheap. My guess the total cost will be at least 40 billion dollar.
Take some profit if the market goes up today.
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