Thursday, July 8, 2010
Is RIM doomed?
Research in motion is in trouble. the stock is down over 50% from its high. I have been bearish on RIMM for a long long time. My rational was and continues to be that a mature high tech company does not deserve a premium valuation because competitions would come. Surely it did. (Same thing can be said for Amazon, priceline.com and even Apple). However, at price around U$50, RIMM is probably fair valued. There are some advantages in Blackberry. 1. It uses much less bandwidth than IPhone or Google phones. Everyone is complaining about AT&T but I see this is a Apple problem. The highway is limited and you cannot put bigger and bigger trucks onto it. 2. Privacy. RIMM has the best security among all smart phones. I do not see corporations and governments to switch to IPhone any time soon. It may become an attractive target for Microsoft or Nokia.
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