Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Can China control growth at its will?

The market is relieved yesterday that Chinese PMI is not fallen more. The market has a mistaken belief that Chinese government can slow down or bring up growth rate at its will. It is not true. On the surface, Chinese government has lot of power and tools to stimulus the economy or slow down it if necessary. But gradually, government's impact will diminish after ever larger intervention. Chinese people has a very high saving rates which gives government lots of rooms to direct bank loans. However, the risk on bad loans has increased dramatically over last two years. The banks are ordered to increased their common equities. Trillions new equities have been and will be issued. It is more difficult to finance new mega projects for banks. Real estates is the battle ground which will slow down the whole economy in China.

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