Thursday, June 9, 2011

supply disruption vs. demand surge

The high commodity prices have caused inflation around the world. The slowing demand induced by high interest rate in China and other emerging market have somewhat the muted impact on overall commodity prices. The reason is simply, we have supply disruptions. First, OPEC refused to increase output yesterday (you have to question if they have the ability to increase the supply), Second, the weather has played a major role to disrupt agriculture products. Third, the political and military difficulty in Africa and middle east have made investments in mining in those countries less desirable. All these increase the prices of commodities. I am afraid we are in a high inflation and low growth period and The Fed can do little about it.

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