Friday, October 7, 2011

Where is the money for EU bank bailout

The market is very excited about the prospect that EU will stabilize the banking system in Europe. Eventually they do not have a choice. However, the question is where the money would come from. Most European countries. credit rating have been downgraded, except Germany and France (plus a few Scandinavia countries). France is in no position to inject large sum of money without jeopardizing its own credit rating. So at the end of day, Germany is going to put up the money, whether it is a guarantee and leveraging. In order to satisfy its voters, Merkel will demand harsh conditions for the bailout. I won't be surprised to see some banks in Europe to lose big in their equity. Non-secure creditors may also have some risks. I have some doubts on orderly restructure of Greek debt.

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